THE CATHOLIC KNIGHT: Leave it to 'The Catholic Knight' to forecast another winter flurry of pessimism-porn right after the Christmas holiday. Hey, at least I didn't post this before Christmas and ruin the spirit of the season - like I did last year.
Okay, so we could just dismiss these dire predictions as doomsday hype were it not forecasted by people with such good track records. I should point out that these Russian predictions do synchronize with leading trends forecasters in America too, with one exception. The American trends forecasters predict America will recover after a political revolution in 2010 and 2012. The Russian forecasters say we'll never make it that far into the future, and the United States will break apart into half a dozen pieces before the year 2010 is done.
How much stock we put into those predictions is irrelevant, as the Russians seem to be putting their money (and military) where their mouth is. Multiple news stories coming out of the former Soviet state confirm the Russians are beefing up their security forces and preparing for "instability" in the North American hemisphere. Apparently the Russians aren't going to take any chances....
(Wall Street Journal) - A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.Fortunately Mr. Panarin was wrong about the timing of a "civil war next fall." This article was printed in September of 2008, and "next fall" past by a month ago. Whew! But that doesn't mean the prediction is entirely wrong. The timing may just be off. Might I add that American trends forecasters where predicting tough times to happen by fall of 2009 as well. So what went wrong? How could it be that people with such amazing track records could miss? Well, some say the economic stimulus packages have had the effect of postponing the inevitable. In other words, our economy is on a sugar high, but it won't last. Congress is already planning "Economic Stimulus 3.0" for early 2010 in the amount of another $700 to $800 billion.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry...
read full story here
Personally, I think Mr. Panarin is on to something, and so is Mr. Celente, Mr. Schiff, and other trends forecasters. The days of Empire America are over. Economically speaking, we're the walking dead. We just don't know it yet. The only question is this, when reality finally hits us, just how bad will it be? Will our economic free fall be enough to plunge us into another Civil War? (Remember, we had one once before.) It's far more likely, in my opinion, that if violence were to erupt, it wouldn't happen until after the 2010 election (maybe early 2011), starting with a conflict between the whitehouse and a newly elected congress, effectively polarizing the whole country between those who support President Obama and those who do not. That's just my opinion anyway. I really don't know what the future holds for the United States of America. All I do know is this. Election 2008 was the one that sealed our fate, whatever that fate may be. In it, the American people chose to elect a president and a congress that have zero regard for human life and the traditional family, all for promises of health, wealth and "change." In spite of the weakness of the Republican alternative, it was an election in which the choice could not have been more clear. Shall we maintain the status quo, or plunge ourselves even deeper into socialism and moral relativism? Sadly, America chose the latter. Now we get to reap the consequences. Joy.
3 comments; post here:
Mr. Panarin doesn't understand the political climate here, nor the culture of self rule which has been part of the culture for hundreds of years.
Yes there could be a war there always could be. But the republics Panarin came up with show a lack of understanding. For instance many in the Alanntic America would never join unless forced ie Tenn,Ky,W Va,NC,SC,PA. Texas would need more than the rest of the south to have a republic. Most of the midwest would probably side with california or NY before texas. I think the funniest one is Texas will be under mexican influence. Like that would ever happen, more likely would be that mexico would be under texan influence.
And the biggest error is assuming that the division would remain indefinitely. This isn't the first time we've had problems, and this wont be the last. If anything unifies us its that we don't bow to other powers or seek them out.
We really shouldn't be giving credibility to this. Nor encouraging secession. Especially because with out a major action it wont happen. If it was going to happen it would have last year when tensions were greatest.
I think those that talk about secession know that they can not stand without the rest of us. Especially Texas. Which is why nothing will happen without a major catalyst.
I wholeheartedly agree. The above maps does show a profound misunderstanding of American culture, and if he's that far off in that area, it brings into question how accurate he is in the whole subject of breakup to begin with.
I have believed for many years that the United States will eventually be divided, but as you said, it will take a catalyst of major proportions. The result of which would be the impotence of Washington DC in dealing with national problems. Once a few key states realize that Washington is taking more from them, then what it's giving back, secession will happen - guaranteed.
The only difference is that I predict the secession, whenever it does happen, will be relatively peaceful, and who is to say when it will happen. Perhaps sooner, perhaps later, perhaps decades from now; certainly it will happen within the next 50 to 100 years.
The only thing that can hold the United States together is subsidiarity (embodied in American federalism), and unfortunately, the lesson we've learned about democratic republics is that they almost always trend in the opposite direction. The same goes for the USA. So baring an epiphany of our leaders, resulting in a massive decentralization process, the USA is doomed to a breakup. I just don't know when.
When it does finally happen though, the borders and "influence" will probably not be anything like the maps above.
First of all, there is the issue of the old Confederacy to deal with. Technically the Southern states of Dixie never did surrender to the Union, and there are many within the deep South states who are well aware of that. I'm not talking about fringe groups here. I'm talking about doctors, lawyers, police officers, politicians, and even Roman Catholic priests! How do I know? Simple, I know some of them personally. Now these folks are not interested in rebuilding the antebellum South, but rather reviving a form of decentralized Confederation similar to that used by the United States under the Articles of Confederation between 1776 to 1789, with some minor modifications.
Who knows how many states would participate in a revived Confederacy. Certainly the deep South states, plus the Appalachian mountain states, would participate. Then there is the possibility of a Texas Republic arising separately, being joined by the surrounding Midwestern-Southern states as far north as Missouri and Kansas, and as far east as Louisiana. I can't see New Mexico or Arizona becoming part of this though. Then there is the West Coast, consisting of California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. This could easily become it's own regional Republic of Cascadia. Finally there are the New England states, which could possibly declare independence and rejoin the British Commonwealth. Who knows what happens to the Great Lake states and Northern-Midwestern states? Maybe they unify with Canada. The only two states that I see a potential threat of involuntarily coming under the influence of a foreign power are Alaska and Hawaii. The same goes for all US territories.
Mark my words, without a return to subsidiarity (in earnest) something like the above WILL HAPPEN eventually. Who knows when, but it will happen. Natural law dictates it.
Some good points, Mr Knight. However, the union is still strong enough to endure since we have establsihed the notion of what it means to be an American, a concept going back to the founding fathers. I recall that old cartoon of a snake divided into 13 pieces and the slogan "join or die" But rather than secession, I think the best solution to restore the balance ruined by "Honest Abe" is to call a new consitutional convention to re-write the constitution and spell out the rights of the states vs the feds, or else a strict enforecement of the 10th amendment. while you say secession may come about peacefully, do you really think the feds will allow some states to slip out of the union? the south tried that in 1861, as you well know. And yes, the Russian is simply doing his own version of wishful thinking. And even if the US DID divide somehow, commerce and other forms of communication would survive--- the infrastructure is too integrated. Pete Frey
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